Embattled Ballots, Quiet Streets: Competitive Authoritarianism and Dampening Anti-Government Protests in Turkey

Mass protests frequently occur in electoral autocracies. However, the opposite is true Turkey, despite mounting grievances and a strong opposition presence with institutional resources. We argue that competitive authoritarian regimes, subset of autocracies, may dampen mass protests, allowing an opportunity to defeat incumbents through elections. Studying Turkey’s main party, we identify three mechanisms show how politicians strategically respond regime’s incentives constraints leading protest-averse behaviour. First, repression capacity discourages from openly supporting protest. Second, learns target median voter, which leads political moderation protest averseness. Finally, prospective success reinforces opposition’s commitment ballot-centred approach.